My Fearless Final Four Prediction And Some Credit Union News

March 16, 2017 at 9:15 am Leave a comment

With America’s greatest sporting event about to tip off, I have rankings on my mind this morning.

Yesterday, NCUA released the 4th quarter summary of the industry’s performance, and while the overall numbers are encouraging, some of NY’s stats are a bit surprising. For instance, NY ranked 42nd in Median Total Delinquency Rate and in credit union loan growth it ranked 37th nationally, with a year – to – year growth of 3.2%. Looking on the bright side, New York ranks 17th in both asset growth (4.1%) and deposit growth (4.4%).

You undoubtedly already heard the news that the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee voted to raise its benchmark interest rate 0.25%, and indicated that two more rate increases are on the way.

What you may have missed is this intriguing article in today’s WSJ pointing out that banks have pulled back on lending; the paper is reporting that “Total loans and leases by U.S. commercial banks are currently rising at an annual pace of about 5%, based on weekly seasonally adjusted data from the Federal Reserve. That is down from a 6.4% pace for all of last year and peak rates of around 8% in mid-2016.”

This is a trend to keep an eye on. Remember Wall Street’s rise has been fueled, in part, by a belief that increased interest rates would boost the fortunes of banks. In addition, conventional wisdom is that President Trump’s economic policies are likely to spur economic growth in the short to medium term. Why then are the banks pulling back the reigns on lending? This is one factoid to keep in mind next time you talk to your Congressman about MBL reform.

My Fearless Final Four Predictions

There is a reason why computers do a much better job at gambling than do humans. Computers take the emotions out of it. For example, anyone who has filled out a bracket for this year’s men’s basketball tournament has fantasies of riding the next Cinderella all the way to the final four. The facts tell a different story. The top 8 seeds in each region make up 85% of the final 16. When it gets to the final 16 there is an 84% chance that the final four teams will come from teams seeded 1-4 in their regions. In other words, the top 16 seeds have an 83% chance of making the final four. Finally 75% of National Champions were either a number 1 or 2 seed.

Against this back drop yours truly likes Kansas, Villanova, West Virginia and Kentucky in the Final Four, with Kentucky winning the National Championship five minutes before the entire team announces that they are quitting college to make millions playing in the NBA.

Entry filed under: General.

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Authored By:

Henry Meier, Esq., Senior Vice President, General Counsel, New York Credit Union Association.

The views Henry expresses are Henry’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Association. In addition, although Henry strives to give his readers useful and accurate information on a broad range of subjects, many of which involve legal disputes, his views are not a substitute for legal advise from retained counsel.

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