What Will the Next Nine Months Bring To Your CU?

March 3, 2021 at 9:32 am Leave a comment

Will the next six months bring about a rise in delinquencies as government support begins to wane or will your credit unions be in store for a boom in lending activity as consumers break out of the plastic bubbles otherwise referred to as their houses and break out the credit cards, splurge on big ticket items and generally feel better about their economic prospects? Even as NCUA understandably makes examining your credit union’s ALLL policies it’s top priority for 2021, there is mounting evidence that the more optimistic scenario is the one most likely to unfold. 

Most importantly, credit unions have been telling me for a long time that the problem isn’t deposits, it’s getting members to spend some of that money.  How right they are.  Worldwide consumers have squirreled away an extra $2.9 Trillion in savings with the Unites States alone accounting for half of the total.  In fact, according to Bloomberg if consumers decide to spend all that extra savings, the economy would grow at a 9.6% rate this year.  While such speculation is crazy talk, the increased savings are in addition to the checks that many of your members will be receiving, assuming Congress passes another economic relief package within the next couple of weeks.

In another sign that things are going to end up better than anyone would have predicted a year ago, many states are not suffering the decline in tax revenue they anticipated.  In fact, the New York Times ran this front page story yesterday reporting that by some measures many states will end up with almost as much revenue this year as they took in last year.  Some states have even benefitted from the crisis with Idaho seeing an increase in population and tax revenue.  So much for my Own Private Idaho. 

To be sure, there are also signs that for many the economic recovery is not strong enough.  On Monday, the CFPB released a report detailing the millions of Americans dependent on forbearance programs to stay in their homes and Janet Yellen has been quick to point out that the economy is still down ten million jobs.  Still, my guess is that the biggest concern that your credit union will face in the coming year will be interest rate risk as examiners turn their attention from the adequacy of the reserves to the possibility that inflation will once again start appearing on the horizon.

Legislature to Scale Back Governor’s Powers

The Legislature has agreed to pass legislation to curb the Governor’s power to issue Executive orders which he has used to run the state since the COVID crisis started last March.  According to the Times union the new restrictions “will prohibit the governor from unilaterally issuing new executive orders related to the pandemic without legislative review. He will retain the ability to tweak or renew existing orders relating to slowing the spread of COVID-19, including the state’s mask mandate or business restrictions”

We will have to examine just how this will affect Executive Orders that have impacted CU operations.  For example, as readers know, the Governor has established the criteria for vaccine shot eligibility and he has authorized the use of remote notarization. In addition, even though the Legislature has passed mortgage forbearance legislation-Section 9X of the Banking Law-these protections expire with the end of the EO’s.  We will keep you posted.

Entry filed under: Compliance, COVID-19, Economy, New York State. Tags: , , , , .

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Authored By:

Henry Meier, Esq., Senior Vice President, General Counsel, New York Credit Union Association.

The views Henry expresses are Henry’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Association. In addition, although Henry strives to give his readers useful and accurate information on a broad range of subjects, many of which involve legal disputes, his views are not a substitute for legal advise from retained counsel.

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